AGP Executive Report

Cross-Border War Spillover: Chad says Sudanese Armed Forces hit a convoy more than 100km inside Chadian territory near Ennedi-Est, while a separate strike on a fuel market near the border killed 12 and wounded seven—raising fresh fears the Sudan conflict is spreading. US Push on Sanctions: Washington is urging the UN Security Council to expand the Darfur arms embargo across all Sudan and explicitly cover drones, warning external support is sustaining the war; Russia and China are resisting. Khartoum’s Capital Reset: Sudan lifted Khartoum’s long curfew and emergency measures, reopening the airport and encouraging businesses, but residents still face looting damage and power blackouts. OIC Agenda for Lake Chad & Sahel: Nigeria used the OIC foreign ministers meeting in Jeddah to press for practical security and development action for the Lake Chad Basin and Sahel, including a proposed Nigeria–OIC humanitarian working group. Chad’s Security Tech: Chad has reportedly deployed Chinese Caihong-4 (CH-4) armed reconnaissance drones at Abéché, signaling tighter border monitoring. Food Systems & Jobs: A Chad-focused push around Lake Chad farmland restoration and solar irrigation is turning abandoned land back into productive plots, aiming to reduce dependence on aid. Energy/Investment Signal (Nigeria): Savannah Energy reported higher Nigerian cash collections and progress toward more gas output, reinforcing investor interest in the region’s energy pipeline.

Chad–Sudan Border Clash: Chad says a Sudanese air strike hit a fuel market near the border, killing 12 and wounding seven, as both sides trade accusations amid the wider SAF–RSF war. US Diplomacy: A US envoy warned the conflict could spill across borders after the reported strike, urging Chad and Sudan to curb external support to the fighters. UN Sanctions Push: The US is pressing the UN Security Council to expand the Darfur arms embargo nationwide across Sudan and explicitly cover drones, but Russia and China are resisting. Refugees & Integration Pressure: New research highlights how Sudan’s displacement is turning into a Chad integration challenge, with education, jobs and land access now key to reducing long-term strain. World Lake Day (Nigeria): Nigeria’s Navy and environment officials met in Abuja to tackle lake shrinkage, citing pollution, over-extraction and waste dumping as threats to water, food and livelihoods. Chad Food Systems: Chad’s recovery efforts around Lake Chad are restoring farmland and irrigation using solar pumps, aiming to turn abandoned land back into income. Energy Watch (Nigeria): Savannah Energy reported higher Nigerian cash collections and revenue in 2026, with Uquo 13 reaching first gas and boosting output expectations. Chad Military Tech: Chinese CH-4 armed reconnaissance drones were spotted at Abéché Air Base, signaling expanding border monitoring capabilities.

Chad–Sudan Cross-Border Security: Chadian authorities say Sudanese drones/aircraft struck a convoy inside Chad’s eastern Ennedi region, reopening fears of a wider regional spillover as the UN Security Council weighs a broader Sudan arms embargo. Sanctions Watch: The U.S. is pushing to expand the Darfur arms embargo across all Sudan and explicitly cover drones, but Russia and China are resisting, raising the odds of a watered-down outcome. Chad Military Tech: New reporting says Chinese Caihong-4 (CH-4) armed reconnaissance UAVs have been spotted at Abéché Air Base, hinting at a rapid upgrade to Chad’s eastern-border monitoring. Food Systems & Jobs in Chad: A Lake Chad recovery push is restoring farmland and irrigation, including about 2,400 hectares of abandoned polders using solar-powered pumps, with better roads and market links to raise incomes. World Lake Day (Regional Water Security): Nigeria’s Navy urged public stewardship to protect lakes like Lake Chad, while global coverage warns many inland waters are shrinking and ecosystems are struggling to recover. Cybercrime Crackdown (Regional Spillover): Zambia arrested 79 people in a multinational cybercrime raid, seizing Starlink kits, passports, and cash—another reminder that fraud networks operate across borders.

Chad–Libya Air Links: Afriqiyah Airways has resumed direct flights between Tripoli and N’Djamena, bringing back 44 Chadian citizens and boosting trade and diplomatic ties. Chad Food Systems: Chad is rebuilding livelihoods around Lake Chad through PROLAC, restoring irrigation and solar-powered pumping, including about 2,400 hectares of abandoned polders to reconnect farmers to markets. Chad Security & Tech: Chinese Caihong-4 (CH-4) armed reconnaissance UAVs were spotted at Abéché Air Base, signaling a potential upgrade to eastern-border monitoring. Chad Politics: President Mahamat Idriss Déby pardoned nine opposition figures, including former PM Succès Masra, in a move tied to independence commitments. Regional Security Context: The Lake Chad area remains under pressure as ISWAP leadership tensions reportedly lead to executions and command reshuffles, underscoring instability that can disrupt commerce and investment. Nigeria OIC Push: Nigeria is taking a development-and-security agenda to the OIC Council of Foreign Ministers in Jeddah, focusing on humanitarian response, youth, investment partnerships, and regional security. Nigeria Energy Cashflow: Savannah Energy reported higher Nigerian cash collections (+13% to $247.9m) and revenue (+10% to $160.6m) alongside progress at Uquo gas projects. Environment & Land Restoration: UN officials say Africa’s Great Green Wall has restored over 20m hectares, with the Lake Chad Basin highlighted as a key area where land recovery supports resilience and jobs.

Chad Food Systems: Chad is rebuilding food security around Lake Chad with restored farmland, irrigation and solar-powered pumps, including the return of about 2,400 hectares of abandoned polders via PROLAC. Chad Health Access: Rural communities are getting faster care through Telemedan solar kiosks, cutting the cost and distance of doctor visits. Chad Security & Tech: Chad has spotted Chinese CH-4 armed reconnaissance UAVs at Abéché Air Base, signaling a push to monitor the eastern border. Chad Governance: Nine opposition figures, including former PM Succès Masra, received a presidential pardon in Chad, easing political pressure ahead of releases. Nigeria OIC Push: Nigeria’s delegation heads to the OIC Council of Foreign Ministers in Jeddah with a development-and-security agenda on humanitarian aid, youth, investment and regional security. Nigeria Energy Update: Savannah Energy says Nigeria cash collections rose 13% to $247.9m in 7M 2026, with Uquo 13 on stream and production expected to lift later in the year. Regional Climate Finance: UN officials say Africa’s Great Green Wall has restored 20m hectares, linking land restoration to jobs and Lake Chad Basin resilience. Cybercrime Crackdown (Region): Zambia arrested 79 people in a Lusaka raid tied to a suspected cybercrime network, seizing computers, phones, Starlink kits and passports.

Chad–Libya Air Links: Afriqiyah Airways has resumed direct flights between Tripoli and N’Djamena, bringing back 44 Chadian detainees and boosting trade and diplomatic ties. Chad–Security & Tech: Chinese CH-4 armed reconnaissance UAVs were spotted at Abéché Air Base, signaling a possible upgrade of Chad’s border monitoring capabilities. Chad–Governance & Politics: President Mahamat Idriss Déby pardoned nine opposition figures, including former PM Succès Masra, easing prison pressure while rights groups urge convictions to be overturned. Chad–Healthcare Access: Telemedan solar-powered kiosks are expanding remote consultations in rural Chad, cutting travel costs and improving timely access to care. Regional Finance & Development: Coris Bank International (Burkina Faso) pledged $712m to build hospitals and schools, a major cross-border investment signal for the Sahel. Cybercrime Crackdown (Region): Zambia arrested 79 people in a Lusaka raid tied to a suspected international cybercrime network, seizing computers, phones, Starlink kits, passports, and cash. Land & Climate Economics: UNCCD leaders warned that land restoration needs predictable financing—far beyond current investment levels—to protect livelihoods and food systems.

Chad-UAV Upgrade: Chad has deployed Chinese CH-4 armed reconnaissance drones at Abéché Air Base, with footage showing at least four UAVs and support gear—authorities haven’t officially confirmed the acquisition. Lake Chad Security & Diplomacy: Yobe Governor Mai Mala Buni visited the Lake Chad Basin Commission in N’Djamena, pledging stronger coordination for security and economic growth and backing Tinubu’s Lake Chad peace push. Refugee Support: Buni also toured Nigerian refugees at the Kaya site in Lac Province, urging law-abiding behavior and offering a pathway for census-led repatriation via the Lake Chad Basin Commission. Healthcare Access in Rural Chad: Telemedan solar-powered kiosks are bringing remote consultations to communities like Bitkine, cutting travel costs and improving timely access to care. Governance & Political Space: Chad pardoned nine opposition figures, including former PM Succès Masra, but Human Rights Watch says convictions should be set aside so political participation can fully resume. Regional Air Links: Direct flights between Tripoli and N’Djamena resumed, with Libya’s embassy citing humanitarian returns and improved trade and diplomatic connectivity.

AES Orbit Watch: Claims that Togo and Chad have “joined” the Alliance of Sahel States are premature, but both are deepening practical alignment—especially via security cooperation and trade routes like the Port of Lomé. Lake Chad Diplomacy & Security: Yobe Gov. Mai Mala Buni visited Chad’s Lake Chad Basin Commission and MNJTF, pledging stronger coordination for security and economic growth, and flagged operational gaps including resources and Niger’s MNJTF withdrawal. Refugee Repatriation Push: Buni also visited Nigerian refugees in Lac Province, urging law-abiding behavior and offering a path to return through LCBC census and state-led repatriation. Telemedicine in Rural Chad: Telemedan solar kiosks are bringing remote consultations to communities like Bitkine, cutting travel costs and improving access to care. Chad Politics: President Mahamat Idriss Déby pardoned nine opposition figures, including former PM Succès Masra, setting up a fresh push for political participation. Healthcare & Education Finance (Region): Coris Bank (Idrissa Nassa) pledged $712m for hospitals and schools in Burkina Faso, a reminder of how regional finance is funding social infrastructure. Direct Flights: Afriqiyah Airways resumed Tripoli–N’Djamena direct flights, easing travel and trade links. Security Flash (Lake Chad): Reports say ISWAP leadership tensions in the Lake Chad area escalated after the execution of a senior Shura member and a command reshuffle.

Chad Politics: President Mahamat Idriss Déby pardoned nine opposition figures, including former PM Succès Masra, after their convictions—prompting Human Rights Watch to urge Chad to set aside the convictions, not just release prisoners. Lake Chad Security & Economy: Yobe Governor Mai Mala Buni met the Lake Chad Basin Commission leadership and the MNJTF in N’Djamena, backing stronger regional coordination for security, stabilisation, and economic growth, and highlighting operational gaps. Cross-Border Mobility: Direct flights resumed between Tripoli and N’Djamena, with the Libyan side citing improved travel links and a humanitarian return of Chadian detainees. Healthcare Access: Rural Chad’s Telemedan solar kiosks are helping patients consult doctors remotely, cutting travel costs and improving access. Regional Governance & Terrorism: A new Global Terrorism Index framing points to governance failures as the root driver of West Africa’s terrorism crisis, with economic strain and weak institutions fueling recruitment. Humanitarian & Development: Kuwait’s “Kuwait Stands with You” campaign continues funding education, healthcare, water, and food aid reaching Chad and other regions.

Lake Chad Security & Diplomacy: Yobe Gov. Mai Mala Buni visited the Lake Chad Basin Commission and the Multinational Joint Task Force in N’Djamena, pledging stronger coordination on security and economic growth, and flagging operational gaps including resources, equipment, manpower and Niger’s withdrawal from the MNJTF. Refugee Support & Repatriation: Buni also toured Nigerian refugees at the Kaya site in Lac Province, urging law-abiding behavior and reporting of infiltration, while offering a path to return via LCBC census and state repatriation. Regional Trade Connectivity: Afriqiyah Airways resumed direct flights between Tripoli and N’Djamena, with Libya’s embassy citing the return of 44 Chadian citizens and a boost to economic and diplomatic ties. Healthcare Access in Rural Chad: Telemedan’s solar-powered telemedicine kiosks are bringing remote consultations to communities like Bitkine, cutting travel costs and improving economic resilience. Governance & Anti-Corruption: Chad’s anti-corruption authority (AILC) named new leadership, following an oil-audit dispute involving SHT and requests for documents tied to crude sales. Political Space: Human Rights Watch urged Chad to set aside the conviction of opposition leader Succès Masra after his release on presidential pardon.

Political Reconciliation: Chad pardoned nine opposition figures, including former PM Succès Masra, after President Mahamat Idriss Déby’s decree—releasing them but leaving convictions on record, drawing calls from rights groups to fully overturn cases. Lake Chad Security & Refugees: Yobe’s Gov. Mai Mala Buni visited Nigerian refugees in Lac Province, urging law-abiding behavior and outlining repatriation steps via the Lake Chad Basin Commission; he also pushed for stronger MNJTF support and flagged operational gaps. Regional Diplomacy & Trade Links: Libya and Chad are set to resume direct flights between Tripoli and N’Djamena, alongside plans for a Chadian office in Misrata Free Zone and talks on loans. Governance & Anti-Corruption: Chad replaced anti-corruption authority leadership days after inspectors reported disruption during a state oil audit tied to Société des Hydrocarbures du Tchad (SHT). Health Access in Rural Chad: Telemedan solar-powered kiosks are bringing remote consultations to communities like Bitkine, cutting travel costs and improving care timing. Humanitarian Finance: Coris Bank (Idrissa Nassa) pledged $712m for hospitals and schools in Burkina Faso, signaling continued regional development finance.

Lake Chad Security & Growth: Yobe Governor Mai Mala Buni visited the Lake Chad Basin Commission and the MNJTF in N’Djamena, pledging stronger regional coordination for security and economic development, while flagging MNJTF resource gaps and Niger’s withdrawal. Refugee Support & Repatriation: Buni also toured Nigerian refugees at the Kaya site in Lac Province, urging law-abiding behavior, reporting of infiltration, and offering a path to return via Lake Chad Basin Commission census and state repatriation. Healthcare Access in Rural Chad: Telemedan’s solar-powered telemedicine kiosks are bringing remote consultations closer to communities in central Chad, cutting travel costs and improving access where doctors are scarce. Humanitarian Aid Beyond Borders: Kuwait’s “Kuwait Stands with You” campaign says it is extending education, healthcare, water and food support to vulnerable communities including in Chad. Political Reconciliation: Chad’s presidential pardon freed opposition leader Succès Masra and eight others, with the government calling for calm and dialogue—though convictions reportedly remain on record.

Lake Chad Security & Growth: Yobe Gov. Mai Mala Buni pledged the Lake Chad Basin Governors’ Forum’s commitment to sustainable security and economic growth, urging stronger coordination with the Lake Chad Basin Commission and highlighting Tinubu’s support for the Multinational Joint Task Force. Refugee Repatriation: Buni also visited Nigerian refugees in Chad’s Lac Province (Kaya site), urging law-abiding behavior, reporting of infiltration, and offering a path to return via LCBC census and state-led repatriation. Regional Air Links: Libya and Chad agreed to resume direct flights between Tripoli and N’Djamena, with a first flight scheduled for tomorrow, alongside plans for a Chadian office in Libya’s Misrata Free Zone. Cross-Border Migration Crackdown (Nigeria): Nigeria’s immigration service in Osun paraded 55 irregular migrants from Cameroon and Congo, saying they entered via unauthorized routes and lacked travel documents, with profiling and repatriation planned. Mining Safety Shock (CAR): A gold mine collapse in the Central African Republic killed at least 49 (with witnesses reporting over 100), prompting authorities to suspend operations at the artisanal site and open an investigation. Chad Politics & Reconciliation: Human Rights Watch urged Chad to set aside Succès Masra’s conviction after his release under a presidential pardon, while Chad’s government called for calm and restraint and framed the pardons as a step toward reconciliation.

Immigration Crackdown: Nigeria’s NIS Osun Command paraded 55 irregular migrants from Cameroon and Congo, saying they entered without documents and were traced through intelligence for profiling and possible regularisation. Chad Politics & Rights: Human Rights Watch urged Chad to set aside Succès Masra’s conviction after his presidential pardon freed him and other opposition figures, arguing the charges targeted legitimate political expression. Lake Chad Refugees: Yobe’s Mai Mala Buni visited Nigerian refugees in Chad’s Kaya camp, urging law-abiding behavior, highlighting farming and fishing as self-reliance, and promising repatriation steps via the Lake Chad Basin Commission. Regional Security & Spending: Borno Governor Babagana Zulum said security and humanitarian services consumed 70% of the state budget over seven years, underscoring the cost of the Boko Haram fight. Trade & Conflict Finance: A report highlights how informal artisanal gold trading networks across the Sahel and through Chad can help conflicts keep funding. Mining Safety Shock (CAR): Central African Republic authorities suspended an artisanal gold operation after a collapse near Cameroon killed at least 49, with witnesses reporting higher deaths.

Opposition & Governance: Chad’s President Mahamat Idriss Déby pardoned Succès Masra and eight other opposition leaders, freeing them from prison but leaving convictions on record—prompting calls for reconciliation and, from Human Rights Watch, for convictions to be set aside so political participation can fully resume. Anti-Corruption & Oil Economy: Chad’s anti-corruption authority (AILC) says security agents detained and assaulted its inspectors during an audit of the state oil firm SHT, after inspectors requested documents tied to crude sales and revenue checks. Refugees & Regional Stability: Yobe’s Mai Mala Buni visited Nigerian refugees in Chad’s Lac Province, urging law-abiding behavior and offering a repatriation path via the Lake Chad Basin Commission. Cross-Border Trade & Transport: Libya and Chad agreed to resume direct flights between Tripoli and N’Djamena, with a Chadian office planned for the Misrata Free Zone. Mining Safety: A deadly gold mine collapse near Baboua (border area with Cameroon) has raised pressure on authorities and buyers to improve working conditions, as death toll figures remain disputed. Security Budget Pressure: Borno Governor Babagana Zulum said security and humanitarian services consumed 70% of the state budget over seven years, underscoring the long-run cost of insurgency.

Mining Safety: A deadly gold mine collapse at Zamboye near Baboua has killed at least 49 people (witnesses say around 100), prompting a temporary shutdown and an investigation as residents warn rainy-season risks are being ignored. Anti-Corruption & Oil Oversight: Chad’s anti-corruption authority (AILC) says security agents detained and assaulted its inspectors during an audit of state oil firm SHT, after inspectors sought invoices tied to crude sales. Politics & Reconciliation: President Mahamat Idriss Déby pardoned Succes Masra and eight opposition leaders, freeing them but keeping convictions on record—while the government calls for calm and dialogue. Refugees & Regional Cooperation: Lake Chad Governors’ Forum chair Mai Mala Buni visited Nigerian refugees in Chad’s Kaya camp, urging law-abiding behavior and promising repatriation support via the Lake Chad Basin Commission. Air Links & Trade Facilitation: Libya and Chad are set to resume direct flights between Tripoli and N’Djamena, with a Chadian office planned for Misrata Free Zone. Security Budget Pressure: Borno’s governor says security and humanitarian services consumed 70% of the state budget over seven years, underscoring the cost of insurgency and displacement. Regional Security Coordination: Buni also pushed President Tinubu to address MNJTF operational gaps, including resource shortages and Niger’s withdrawal. Sahel Gold & Conflict Finance: A report highlights how informal gold trading networks across Chad help conflicts keep funding themselves.